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Seesmic Takes The Lead – What Will Tweetdeck Do To Catch Up?

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The Battle

Last week Seesmic finally flexed its muscles and opened up a commanding lead on rival Tweetdeck. I know, Tweetdeck still accounts for substantially more tweet volume than Seesmic (at least that is according to the last report I read) but don’t let that fool you. Remember it was just over a year ago that the twitterverse was gaga over Twhirl until Tweetdeck came on the scene with its columns and a way to group the gozillion people you were following. This space is still moving very fast and today’s 800 pound gorilla can quickly find itself being tomorrow’s also-ran. For the last nine months or so I thought it might just be Seesmic that would be the eventual also-ran but not any longer.

I have been baffled for most of this year as I watched Tweetdeck clean Seesmic’s clock. How on Earth was this upstart from London laying the smack down on Loic and his $12 million team in San Francisco? I came to the conclusion that Loic must not have seen Tweetdeck coming and was caught a little off guard at how quickly Twhirl users and new Twitter users adopted Tweetdeck. It is also important to remember that for the better part of 2009 Seesmic was still trying to get traction with Seesmic Video and while they haven’t shut it down it has most definitely been pushed to the back burner. Last week however, Loic finally dropped the hammer on Tweetdeck.

Distribution Wins

I was wondering when the divergence would begin. Both competitors had been matching each other pretty much feature for feature with very little meaningful differentiation. For most users it came down to a UI preference. But Seesmic has now embarked on a strategy of competing where its substantial capital offers the largest advantage. Distribution.

Seesmic users can now access the product via Adobe Air Desktop Client, the web, Windows Desktop, Android and Blackberry. I’m sure it is safe to assume an iPhone application is not too far off as well. Without raising significantly more capital Tweetdeck simply will not be able to go head to head with a similar strategy. Developing and supporting six or seven applications across six or seven hardware platforms is very expensive and requires a lot of manpower. This task is made significantly harder by the fact that once people find an application they like and are comfortable with they are real tough to convert. Seesmic could very well own the Android market before Tweetdeck gets there. I know there are a lot of Tweetie users who looked at Tweetdeck’s iPhone application and decided to stay with Tweetie.

Openness Leads to Innovation – Twitter Is Open

I met with one of Twitter’s investors not too long ago and was discussing my need to improve distribution for Tweetworks. I told him how I have been hounding Loic and  Iain Dodsworth to plug in to the Tweetworks API with no success. He made the observation that it was quite ironic that both of these gatekeepers had built closed platforms off the backbone of an open platform. When I mentioned the rumor that Tweetdeck was supposedly charging developers $50,000 to have their application added he just laughed. Of course I understand why these guys didn’t see the need to add Tweetworks to their applications, our user base is small and their user bases were growing by double digits percentage points every month. But why not create a plug-in architecture like Firefox or WordPress? Heck even Microsoft allows plug-ins from third party developers in Excel, Outlook and other applications. Letting developers expand the utility of your product for your users is just smart.

Guess what? Seesmic finally got hip to this concept too. Loic announced at Microsoft PDC 09 that Seesmic for Windows will have a plug-in architecture. This is a game changer. Instead of me trying to convince people to come to Tweetworks.com I will soon be able to tell them to add the Tweetworks plug-in to Seesmic. I get to extend my distribution, Seesmic gets to offer users a wider variety of services without doing all the work and the user gets to use a service he values from his desktop when he chooses to do so.

This is a playing field where Tweetdeck needs to fight. And they had better hop to it. As I mentioned earlier Tweetdeck currently has a much larger user base than Seesmic, at least that is what the tweet volume would indicate. If given a choice today of which desktop client to develop a plug-in for most application developers would choose Tweetdeck. But the window is opportunity is a short one. If Seesmic gets an appreciable head start here too I think it may spell doom for gents in London. Developers who felt shut out by that $50K admission fee will certainly relish in the opportunity to celebrate a new open platform.

Twitter Lists Have Leveled the Playing Field and Opened the Door

Another new competitive threat to Tweetdeck came from Twitter itself with the launch the Lists feature. Twitter has effectively nullified what was once a high conversion cost asset of Tweetdeck’s. Why create groups in Tweetdeck when you can’t access them from other applications? Now Seesmic users, as an example, can create a list via Twitter and access it on their desktop, the web and their mobile device. The door is also wide open to new entrants and smaller competitors like Tweetie and Spaz.

What Should Tweetdeck Do Now?

  • Open Up – Create a plug-in architecture and do it fast. Iain and team should focus their energy on creating an attractive and engaging experience for developers.
  • Add Advanced Functionality – It’s time Tweetdeck moved beyond being a simple database query tool with a lightweight posting feature. For starters maybe add a rich contact management system. Right now the application doesn’t know that Mike Langford on Facebook is @MikeLangford on Twitter. This functionality alone would open the doors to some serious analytical tools that leverage the processing power of the desktop.
  • Pick a Niche Or Two – Let Seesmic become the Toyota of social aggregation tools. There is still room for BMW. Who uses Tweetdeck and why? Focus on making Tweetdeck the best tool for these users.
  • Own Something - Did you notice earlier that I said Seesmic Video is on the back burner? I didn’t say it was dead. How long do you think it will be before Loic adds it to Seesmic desktop and mobile clients? Tweetdeck doesn’t yet own a stream of information. Twitter, Facebook, MySpace and now LinkedIn own Tweetdeck’s users. Owning some centralized source of value beyond the desktop and iPhone clients would sure help Tweetdeck’s chance of monetizing. This is especially important as Seesmic can continue to force Tweetdeck to be locked into giving these clients away for free. It might be smart to look at acquiring or merging with a small web application provider or two whose value would increase dramatically if distributed through Tweetdeck’s client footprint.

Conclusion

Seesmic has radically altered the landscape. If Tweetdeck is to remain a strong player over the long term it needs to find new areas of strength and leverage them to the fullest. Sure they could try to raise additional capital to take Seesmic head on in distribution but that might be a tough sell to investors. The money guys don’t want to hear how you just go lapped and need money to chase your competitor down in a foot race. They want to hear how you can create sustainable and defensible value of your own.

As for me I am a big fan of both Loic and Iain. I love what they have done and continue to do for our space. I look forward to seeing the Tweetworks plug-in on Seesmic in the not too distant future and hope there is a similar opportunity with Tweetdeck.

Written by Mike Langford

November 25, 2009 at 1:20 pm

Posted in twitter

Tagged with , ,

7 Responses

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  1. Mike, thanks for your kind words. There is room for everyone in the space. As far as our 2009 is concerned, remember we were ONLY doing video and Twhirl was “just” an addon to help video grow so it took us some time to completely change focus. Now we are full speed, expect lots of news and more.

    Loic

    November 25, 2009 at 3:22 pm

  2. I don’t think there will be a single winner; there will continue to be a multi-party ecosystem of Twitter clients for different uses, including the minority of people who access the Twitter website directly.

    To me the question isn’t so much “who will win, Seesmic or Tweetdeck?” but “who is going to replace the loser(s), and what is the new special sauce they bring?”. I think the OS market has shown that a consistently innovating minority share can by some measures “win” even when the competition dominates the market.

    Nicolas Ward

    November 25, 2009 at 3:27 pm

  3. I agree, there is plenty of room for everyone. I am looking forward to seeing what’s next. Healthy competition breeds newness and continued vibrancy. Keep up the great work.

    Mike Langford

    November 25, 2009 at 3:39 pm

  4. True there isn’t likely to be a single overall winner but rather Seesmic or Tweetdeck or some other up and comer will own certain segments of the space. I like your “who will replace the loser?” question. That’s a smart way of looking at it because there is always something new and you never know which new thing will challenge the existing players.

    Mike Langford

    November 25, 2009 at 3:45 pm

  5. really good post. I am a longtime tweetdeck user and still prefer it to seesmic, hootsuite et al on the desktop. when I started on the Droid, however, I found a new client called xeeku that provided a highly usable interface and incorporated twitter lists, which early leader twitdroid did not. listerine solved the issue I had with populating my twitter lists painlessly.

    I will probably try out the seesmic product soon, but am a little dismayed by a comment I saw that the Droid version lacked several features that made the desktop model unique…but if, as you describe, seesmic opens to plugins, that situation will be remedied soon.

    thanks for the analysis – I have upgraded your category status from amiable lunch companion to platform savant. :)

    Todd. Randolph

    November 27, 2009 at 11:41 am

  6. Ooh! I like “Platform Savant!”

    Mike Langford

    November 27, 2009 at 4:20 pm

  7. I spoke too soon! still no sign of a droid client, but on all other fronts today’s tweetdeck upgrade is putting the big hurt on its competitors. linkedin-tegration, geo-location, twitter lists http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/11/30/tweetdeck-lists-geo-linkedin/.

    I love xeeku on my droid, but when tweetdeck gets one, it’ll be a tough call…

    Todd Randolph

    November 30, 2009 at 3:32 pm


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